Covid-19 briefing

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- ECONOMIC IMPACT -

Latest update: 14 April

The US Federal Reserve has projected the economy to grow by 6.5% in 2021, its strongest growth for the last four decades.

Philippines’ real GDP contracted by 9.6% in 2020 with Q4 2020 economic growth at -8.3%.

6.7%

Unemployment rate in OECD nations in February 2021

6.0%

Consensus forecast for world GDP growth in 2021

Global real GDP growth

% change on previous year

2.6%

2.8%

-3.9%

Pre-Covid-19 2020 forecast

2019 average

Adjusted 2020 forecast

The cost of Covid-19

$375bn

Estimated monthly cost of the Covid-19 pandemic globally

$11tn

Cumulative loss for global economy over the next two years

- SECTOR IMPACT: technology -

Latest update: 14 April

GlobalData has analysed the impact of Covid-19 on the leading companies operating in 17 separate sectors within technology, media, and telecoms (TMT), with all TMT sectors negatively impacted by Covid-19 in 2020, although IT Services has been the hardest hit.

Despite this, some areas — including telecom services, some telecom infrastructure, and cloud-based solutions — are holding up well or growing. Operators moved forward CAPEX to support critical connectivity requirements and are now restarting 5G, edge computing and other initiatives temporarily put on hold or slowed down.

Sector indices

Revenue predictions

Boeing and Airbus post unprecedented losses throughout the year, with last quarter being the worst on record for the global aerospace industry.


Defence is being used as a stimulus measure in markets with large domestic capacity, particularly the US, but there will be medium-term constraint due to fiscal pressures.

Enterprise technology & services 

  • Revenue impact varies across industries, with some sectors hit harder than others.
  • Cloud optimisation and migration engagements, as well as security related projects, are growing, but many other IT infrastructure and services projects have been postponed.
  • IT services hardest hit as projects are re-evaluated. IT services companies are re-skilling employees to adapt to shifting demand and cutting use of contractors.
  • Shift to homeworking sparks demand for collaboration tools, but there are associated cybersecurity risks.
  • Some enterprise technology companies are reporting executive pay reductions and scaled back recruitment, but wide-scale Covid-19-related job cuts have not yet materialised.
  • Apple, Samsung and many others have experienced significant supply chain disruption. Expect significant supply chain diversification in the medium term.
  • Enterprise IT saw a rapid and intense demand spike for networking and capacity services, collaboration software and cybersecurity.

Subsector impact

Application software: Significant negative impact

Spending on software will be hit as IT projects are put on hold. However, the market will slowly recover in 2021 and beyond. Collaboration tools are the one bright spot. Additionally, tech providers are launching return-to-work solutions to help manage the challenges associated with employees returning to the office.


Industrial automation: Moderate negative impact

Organisations will focus on automation in the medium term to help bridge the productivity gap. Industry 4.0 will have an important role to play to reduce potential infection vectors in the workplace. A greater investment in robotics and automation may prevent future plant shutdowns.


IT infrastructure: No impact

2021 spending on IT infrastructure will be hit as IT projects are scaled down or put on hold. Upgrades will be limited to facilitating collaboration for work from home as the economic impact of the crisis deepens.

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